Why BJP lost and UPA won in Elections 2009 !

The 2009 Lok Sabha elections sprung up a major surprise for a number of people. No one was predicting a washout of BJP or sure. Most of the s0-called experts and exit polls were predicting a hung parliament with some even suggesting a slender but definite lead for the BJP.

Let's first see that what BJP thought would work:

1. Hindutva - The party still believed that Hindutva as its ideology will still appeal the masses as it did in early 90s.Varun Gandhi's speech a Pilibhit could be construed as an example of the same, trying to garner support of Hindu voters. ( obviously that backfired)
2. Anti-incumbency - It or its think tank just thought or rather hoped that people would not like to vote for an UPA govt. again
3. Charisma of Advani-Modi. So called Iron-men of the BJP.
4. Global recession - It hoped that the global recession and its affects can be blamed on the UPA govt.
   

well, this is a short list, IMO , in spite of its manifesto it had only these 4 as the main issues it brought out in its campaign.

Lets look at why the above did not work.The 1st and 3rd did not because probably these do not form the basic issues for most people in the country now. At least I hope so, now I may be proven wrong on this in the next election, but those would be a different set of circumstances and variables and I guess no one can predict that.

So IMO, the Hindutva as a concept that will garner votes is obsolete. It did once, but not anymore.

The portraying of Narendra Modi as "Chote Sardar" with a reference to Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in mind, did not work. The riots in Gujarat has not gone down well. That is also implied by the reduction in Lok Sabha seats for BJP in Gujarat as well.

The BJP also managed to confuse the electorate by portraying Narendra Modi as the choice for PM for the 2014 elections. That was definitely a big mistake. It sounded like Advani was an interim candidate. There should be only one clear leader, that's all.

It is quite surprising for India as its only second time in history of independent India that any Prime Minister has won back-to-back. The last time it was done by none other than Nehru. Even Indira and Rajiv Gandhi could not do what Dr. Manmohan Singh has done.

Clearly ant-incumbency could not be argued. The previous government essentially did a good job on most of the fronts. The below list actually contains

1. The signing of the Nuclear deal with US in spite of stiff opposition from the UPA allies i.e. the Left block (CPI, CPM) was a major positive step in the right direction. Securing energy security in a scenario where the fossil fuels can not be depended upon for long term, say a hundred years down the line is paramount to India's rise in future as a economic power.
   
2. Although one could attribute security goof up for the Mumbai attacks in 2008, the fact is that the government did a good job in managing the crisis both domestically as well on the foreign ministry's front. I am not saying that there are no lessons to be learned on the internal security front but just referring to the management of the situation once it happens. We need systematic changes in our intelligence and automating the monitoring activity rather than depend on police force's manual inspections.
3. The BJP did not have any anti Sonia Gandhi trumpet to blow this time based on her Italian descent unlike the last time when a lot of people decided not to vote for UPA because they did not want an Italian born as their Prime Minister. Obviously, what happened in 2004 when Sonia Gandhi decided to bring in Dr. Manmohan Singh who had a great and clean image and is considered the father of Indian economic reforms since 1991 is all very well known. The infighting BJP leaders could never have done such a thing, giving up the PM's job. That killed the BJP's pathetic issue for once and all.
4. The focus and infrastructure and development has been substantial.A number of development projects have been taken. But, more work needs to be done for road and power infrastructure improvement, dams and possibly even connecting rivers or deep canalization to provide water and food security. Fifty or hundred years down the line, the wars may not be about nuclear energy and control of iron,minerals, oil but for WATER.
   
5. NREGA - the national rural employment guarantee act/program. This was ridiculed by the elite as a dole out for the poor which will be a waste due to corruption and bureaucracy. But, proving everyone wrong, the program has excelled in its motives of ensuring that the money reaching the poor and needing. This was enable by enforcing bank credits in the name of the NREGA card/account holder instead the usual way of cash which is easier to fritter away by the corrupt middlemen. The NREGA also allowed upto 6% money to be used as administrative expenses which was a good and realistic measure.But this was the classice case of BEFORE n AFTER comparisions like the weight loss advertisements. Before the poll it was predicted by the media and the election pundits that the UPA will lose because of failure of the NREGA whereas after the election results, it was attributed to exactly the reverse, i.e. to the success of the NREGA. Most election pundits did a complete volte face on this simulating a circus act.But that's a separate matter ( accuracy of psephologists - is it a science or something akin to astrology). Having said that about NREGA, there are a number of things that can be improved about the scheme making it more efficient and better which I am sure the government is planning to do.You can do a Yahoo! search to find about more about both positives and scope of improvements for NREGA. From an economic theory point of view, the NREGA provided the money in the hand of the people whose marginal propensity of consuption or spending is much higher than the people who would rather save than spend. In the time of a global recession, India has done relatively well to stem the rot. The principle is same that the poor are more likely to spend than save on smaller comforts since they want to improve their standard of living.Companies like HUL(Lever) and and other retailers have realised this much earlier, I guess almost 2 decades ago when they started the marketing of shampoo sachets, creating a price point that was affordable to the poor and addressing an untapped market segment. Obviously, the poor could not afford to buy a 100 rupee, 200 ml shampoo bottle but they could buy a 2 rupee 8 ml shampoo sachet. I should point out that the first company to bring out sachets was a not HUL but CHIC shampoos, a brand very popular in the southern parts of India.Anyway, I have digressed a bit, but the bottom line is that this is also helping in fighting the recession.
   
6. RTI- the Right to Information act has been a first of its kind in probably the whole world. This is a great act in line with the democratic principles.It empowers and encourages normal people to go out and question government decisions, expenses and so on.More things need to be brought in the purview of the RTI act but its no doubt an excellent start for bringing in transparency in the actions of the government and its various agencies and official's conduct.
7. Global Recession - The PM and the finance minister P. Chidambaram along with RBI have done a great job in containing the recession. The inflation is in control, government is spending money in development and infrastucure in roads, realty, power etc. which is a great cure for recession and acts like NREGA have brought money to the people who spend rather than save.It may be noted that during the Great Depression of 1929, U.S. built a huge network of roads and railroads, simultaneoulsy providing jobs and building infrastructure.
   

Probably this list can be a lot longer w.r.t to what went wrong for BJP and what went right for UPA. But this time some sort of history seems to have been created where the Indian voters came out and voted for the pro-development issues that mattered for the people rather than the rhetorical ones created by the the BJP.